FORECASTING FUTURE PRODUCTION TREND OF DRAGON FRUIT IN REGION 10, PHILIPPINES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2024.024.3.3Keywords:
Agricultural forecasting, ARIMA, Dragon Fruit Production, Trend AnalysisAbstract
This research provided an in-depth analysis of the future production trends of dragon fruit in region 10, Philippines, using secondary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority. Employing statistical methods like descriptive statistics, trend analysis, time series analysis, ARIMA modeling, and cross-validation, the study revealed a steady increase in dragon fruit production from 2012 to 2022. It forecasted continued growth based on linear regression but cautioned about potential declines as indicated by ARIMA modeling. The research underscored the necessity of appropriate modeling for accurate forecasts and highlighted the influence of external factors on production trends. It aimed to guide farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders in strategic decision-making for the region's dragon fruit industry.
References
Dudek, G. (2022). STD: A Seasonal-Trend-Dispersion Decomposition of Time Series. Retrieved from https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2204.10398
FFTC Agricultural Policy Platform (FFTC-AP). (2018) . Current Status of Dragon Fruit and Its Prospects in the Philippines.
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