PRICE VOLATILITY ANALYZE IN EARLY PANDEMIC COVID 19 OUTBREAKS: CASE STUDY IN GORONTALO PROVINCE SHALLOT MARKET

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2023.023.1.9

Keywords:

fluctuation, Gorontalo, price volatility, pandemic, shallots

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 led to unpredictable price fluctuation in agricultural commodities such as Shallots. The purpose of this research was to analyze the price fluctuation behavior of shallots in Gorontalo Province during the Covid-19 Pandemic and the price volatility surge as well as the effect of the pandemic during 2020. This study used data from The National Food Strategy Information Center in the form of weekly price in time-series from January 2018 to December 2020. The data analysis on price volatility was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH / GARCH) Models. The results show that shallot price behavior randomly fluctuates every year, is more unpredictable, and has significant fluctuation over 2020. The ARCH / GARCH models prove that Pandemic Covid-19 in 2020 triggered the unpredictable price fluctuation and led to price volatility of shallots commodity in Gorontalo Province.

Author Biography

Yuliana Bakari, Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Gorontalo State University

Prof. Ing B.J Habibie Street,  Tilongkabila, District of Bone Bolango, Gorontalo

References

Achsani, N. A., Oktaviani, R., & Hakim, D. B. (2011). Dealing With Commodity Price Volatility.[internet]https://asean.org/wpcontent/uploads/images/archive/documents/ASEAN+3RG/2012/FULL VERSION REPORT IPB.pdf. Diakses [1 September 2021].

Adhiwibowo, K. A. R. (2019). Distribusi Perdagangan Komoditas Bawang Merah Indonesia 2019 (S. S. P. D. Negeri (ed.); 8201018th ed.). CV.National Indah.

Agustian, A., Perdana, R. P., & Rachma, B. (2020). Strategi Stabilisasi Harga Pangan Pokok Pada Era Pandemi Covid-19. Pusat Sosial Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 3, 389–390.

Ajibade, T. B., Ayinde, O. E. onedict, & Abdoulaye, T. (2020). Food Price Volatility In Nigeria And Its Driving Factors. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 8(4), 367–380.

Amanta, F., & Aprilianti, I. (2020). Kebijakan Perdagangan Pangan Indonesia Indonesia saat Covid-19. Centre For Indonesian Policy Studie, 2020(1), 1–7.

Ana Frasipa. (2021). Volatilitas harga dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi harga beras saat pandemi covid-19 di indonesia. [tesis]. Bogor: Sekolah Pasca Sarjana Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Anderson, K. (2012). Agricultural Price Distortions : Trends and Volatility , Past and Prospective. Journal Agricultural Economics, 44(August 2012), 18–24.

Apergis, N., & Rezitis, A. (2011). Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1(February), 95–110.

Asmara, A., Oktaviani, R., & Firdaus, M. (2011). Volatilitas Harga Minyak Dunia Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Industri Pengolahan dan Makroekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, Volume 29, 49–69.

Bakari, Y., Aninditya, R., & Syafrial. (2013). Analisis Volatilitas Harga, Transmisi Harga, Dan Volatility Spillover Pada Pasar Dunia Crude Palm Oil (Cpo) Dengan Pasar Minyak Goreng Di Indonesia. AGRISE, XIII(3), 253–264.

Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (Second Edi). CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.

FAO. (2020). Q&A_ COVID-19 pandemic – impact on food and agriculture _ FAO _ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/q-and-a/impact-on-food-and-agriculture/en/. [29 November 2020]

Firdaus, M. (2020). Aplikasi Ekonometrika dengan E-Views, Stata, dan R. PT Penerbit IPB Press.

Gilbert, C.; C. W. M. (2011). Food Price Volatility. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 45–61). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6.

Hasanuddin. (2020). Harga “Barito†di Gorontalo Melonjak. Gopost.Id. https://gopos.id/harga-barito-di-gorontalo-melonjak/[diakses; 1 September 2021]

Huchet-bourdon, M. (2011). Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overviewâ€, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries (Working Paper No 52; Issue 52). OECD Publishing.

Kim, K., Kim, S., & Park, C.-Y. (2020). Food Security in Asia and the Pacific amid the COVID-19 Pandemic. ADB Briefs, 6(139), 1–15.

Manurung, M. (2019). Buletin Konsumsi Pangan. Pusat Data Dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian, 55.

O’Connor, D. M. K. (2011). Empirical Issues Relating to Diary Commodity Price Volatility. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 63–83). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6

PIHPS Nasional. (2020). Tabel Harga Berdasarkan Daerah. In Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis Nasional. https://hargapangan.id/tabel-harga/pedagang-besar/daerah [10 Januari 2021]

Piot-Lepetit, I. (2011). Price Transmission and Price Leadership in the EU Beef and Pork Meet Market. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 85–105). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6.

Poudel, P. B., Gautam, A., Phuyal, S., & Tiwari, C. K. (2020). COVID-19 and its Global Impact on Food and Agriculture. Journal Of Biology and Today’s World, 9(5), 7–10.

Sako, S. (2018). Harga bawang merah di Gorontalo naik - ANTARA News. Antar News. Com. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/700009/harga-bawang-merah-di-gorontalo-naik

Downloads

Published

2023-01-31

How to Cite

Bakari, Y. (2023). PRICE VOLATILITY ANALYZE IN EARLY PANDEMIC COVID 19 OUTBREAKS: CASE STUDY IN GORONTALO PROVINCE SHALLOT MARKET. Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal, 23(1), 69–76. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2023.023.1.9

Issue

Section

Articles