PRICE VOLATILITY ANALYZE IN EARLY PANDEMIC COVID 19 OUTBREAKS: CASE STUDY IN GORONTALO PROVINCE SHALLOT MARKET
Keywords:fluctuation, Gorontalo, price volatility, pandemic, shallots
The Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 led to unpredictable price fluctuation in agricultural commodities such as Shallots. The purpose of this research was to analyze the price fluctuation behavior of shallots in Gorontalo Province during the Covid-19 Pandemic and the price volatility surge as well as the effect of the pandemic during 2020. This study used data from The National Food Strategy Information Center in the form of weekly price in time-series from January 2018 to December 2020. The data analysis on price volatility was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH / GARCH) Models. The results show that shallot price behavior randomly fluctuates every year, is more unpredictable, and has significant fluctuation over 2020. The ARCH / GARCH models prove that Pandemic Covid-19 in 2020 triggered the unpredictable price fluctuation and led to price volatility of shallots commodity in Gorontalo Province.
Achsani, N. A., Oktaviani, R., & Hakim, D. B. (2011). Dealing With Commodity Price Volatility.[internet]https://asean.org/wpcontent/uploads/images/archive/documents/ASEAN+3RG/2012/FULL VERSION REPORT IPB.pdf. Diakses [1 September 2021].
Adhiwibowo, K. A. R. (2019). Distribusi Perdagangan Komoditas Bawang Merah Indonesia 2019 (S. S. P. D. Negeri (ed.); 8201018th ed.). CV.National Indah.
Agustian, A., Perdana, R. P., & Rachma, B. (2020). Strategi Stabilisasi Harga Pangan Pokok Pada Era Pandemi Covid-19. Pusat Sosial Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 3, 389â€“390.
Ajibade, T. B., Ayinde, O. E. onedict, & Abdoulaye, T. (2020). Food Price Volatility In Nigeria And Its Driving Factors. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 8(4), 367â€“380.
Amanta, F., & Aprilianti, I. (2020). Kebijakan Perdagangan Pangan Indonesia Indonesia saat Covid-19. Centre For Indonesian Policy Studie, 2020(1), 1â€“7.
Ana Frasipa. (2021). Volatilitas harga dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi harga beras saat pandemi covid-19 di indonesia. [tesis]. Bogor: Sekolah Pasca Sarjana Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Anderson, K. (2012). Agricultural Price Distortions : Trends and Volatility , Past and Prospective. Journal Agricultural Economics, 44(August 2012), 18â€“24.
Apergis, N., & Rezitis, A. (2011). Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1(February), 95â€“110.
Asmara, A., Oktaviani, R., & Firdaus, M. (2011). Volatilitas Harga Minyak Dunia Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Industri Pengolahan dan Makroekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, Volume 29, 49â€“69.
Bakari, Y., Aninditya, R., & Syafrial. (2013). Analisis Volatilitas Harga, Transmisi Harga, Dan Volatility Spillover Pada Pasar Dunia Crude Palm Oil (Cpo) Dengan Pasar Minyak Goreng Di Indonesia. AGRISE, XIII(3), 253â€“264.
Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (Second Edi). CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS.
FAO. (2020). Q&A_ COVID-19 pandemic â€“ impact on food and agriculture _ FAO _ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/q-and-a/impact-on-food-and-agriculture/en/. [29 November 2020]
Firdaus, M. (2020). Aplikasi Ekonometrika dengan E-Views, Stata, dan R. PT Penerbit IPB Press.
Gilbert, C.; C. W. M. (2011). Food Price Volatility. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 45â€“61). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6.
Hasanuddin. (2020). Harga â€œBaritoâ€ di Gorontalo Melonjak. Gopost.Id. https://gopos.id/harga-barito-di-gorontalo-melonjak/[diakses; 1 September 2021]
Huchet-bourdon, M. (2011). Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overviewâ€, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries (Working Paper No 52; Issue 52). OECD Publishing.
Kim, K., Kim, S., & Park, C.-Y. (2020). Food Security in Asia and the Pacific amid the COVID-19 Pandemic. ADB Briefs, 6(139), 1â€“15.
Manurung, M. (2019). Buletin Konsumsi Pangan. Pusat Data Dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian, 55.
Oâ€™Connor, D. M. K. (2011). Empirical Issues Relating to Diary Commodity Price Volatility. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 63â€“83). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6
PIHPS Nasional. (2020). Tabel Harga Berdasarkan Daerah. In Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis Nasional. https://hargapangan.id/tabel-harga/pedagang-besar/daerah [10 Januari 2021]
Piot-Lepetit, I. (2011). Price Transmission and Price Leadership in the EU Beef and Pork Meet Market. In Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility (pp. 85â€“105). Springer Science Business Media. https://doi.org/10.10079/978-1-4419-7634-5-6.
Poudel, P. B., Gautam, A., Phuyal, S., & Tiwari, C. K. (2020). COVID-19 and its Global Impact on Food and Agriculture. Journal Of Biology and Todayâ€™s World, 9(5), 7â€“10.
Sako, S. (2018). Harga bawang merah di Gorontalo naik - ANTARA News. Antar News. Com. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/700009/harga-bawang-merah-di-gorontalo-naik
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 Yuliana Bakari
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).