THE INFLUENCE OF COCOA PRICE VOLATILITY (Theobroma cacao L.) TO COCOA EXPORTS IN INDONESIA

Dessanty Fauziah Widayat, Ratya Anindita, Putri Budi Setyowati
  AGRISE,Vol 19, No 2 (2019),  117-124  
Viewed : 132 times

Abstract


Production or supply of domestic cocoa cannot fulfil the demand for cocoa in domestic and international markets. Furthermore, there were many old cocoa plants, damaged, unproductive and attacked by pests and diseases with mild, medium to serious condition in 2008. Cocoa production still depends on the weather, which can result in the undetermined change of cocoa price. This problem will fluctuate and if this happens continuously then volatility of cocoa price tends to be high. This research uses historical volatility method to measure the price volatility of cocoa in 2007 until 2016. It indicates that volatility of Indonesia cocoa price is high. In order to determine whether or not volatility of cocoa price affects Indonesian cocoa’s exports, stationary tests, cointegration tests and Error Correction Model (ECM) are used. Its result shows that cocoa price volatility and cocoa exports variable are cointegrated and they have negative relation both in the short term and long term. In addition, the variables of volatility cocoa and cocoa exports in Indonesia are out of equilibrium.

Keywords


Fluctuation; Price Volatility; Export; Historical Volatility; ECM

Full Text:

PDF

References


Aklimawati, Lya dan Teguh Wahyudi. 2013. Estimasi Volatilitas Return Harga Kakao Menggunakan Model ARCH dan GARCH. Jember: Pelita Perkebunan.

Anindita, Ratya. 2004. Pemasaran Hasil Pertanian. Surabaya: Penerbit Papyrus.

Anindita, Ratya dan Nur Baladina. 2017. Pemasaran Produk Pertanian. Yogyakarta: Andi Offset.

Badan Pusat Statistika. 2016. Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia Tri Wulanan 2012-2016. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistika.

Ilmiyono, Agung Fajar. 2017. Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan dan Faktor Ekonomi Makro dalam Memprediksi Volatilitas Harga Saham Perusahaan Subsektor Industri Food and Beverages. Jurnal JIAFE Vol.3 No.I.

Junaidi, Efri. 2013. Analisis Volatilitas Harga Minyak Sawit dan Harga Minyak Goreng (Thesis). Bogor: Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Kementerian Pertanian. 2012. Peningkatan Produksi, Produktivitas dan Mutu Tanaman Rempah dan Penyegar: Pedoman Umum Gerakan Nasional Peningkatan Produksi dan Mutu Kakao Tahun 2013. Jakarta: Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan Kementerian Pertanian.

Nurjannah. 2017. Pemodelan Metode Kuantitatif. Malang: Universitas Brawijaya

Rachman, B. 2003. Dinamika Harga dan Perdagangan Komoditas Jagung. Socioeconomic of Agriculture and Agribusiness.

Rukmana, Rahmat dan Herdi Yudirachman. 2016. Untung Selangit dari Agribisnis Kakao. Yogyakarta: Lily Publisher.

Sumaryanto. 2009. Analisis Volatilitas Harga Eceran Beberapa Komoditas Pangan Utama dengan Model ARCH/GARCH. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2019.019.2.6

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Dessanty Fauziah Widayat

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.