FORECASTING THE BASIC CONDITIONS OF INDONESIA'S RICE ECONOMY 2019-2045

Authors

  • Arifin Zainul Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Islam Malang, Malang, Indonesia http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6818-9485
  • Nuhfil Hanani Deparment of Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University
  • Djoko Kustiono Deparment of Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University
  • S Syafrial Deparment of Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University
  • Rosihan Asmara Deparment of Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2021.021.2.4

Keywords:

rice economic model, policy, forecasting, gold Indonesia 2045

Abstract

By 2045, Indonesia's population is expected to reach 321.4 million, the fifth largest in the world after China, India, Nigeria, and the United States. It is an excellent challenge for Indonesia to provide food in the future as it keeps pace with the rapid population growth. This study aims to analyze forecasting the basic conditions of Indonesia’s rice economy 2019-2045. The research data use time-series data from 1961-2018, including data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Ministry of Agriculture/Pusdatin, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Rice Research (IRR), Department of Commerce, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and ASEAN Food Safety Information System (AFSIS). Data analysis using the simultaneous equations model approach. The results show that in 2019-2045 the projection of rice productivity in 2025 is 64,465 quintals per hectare; in 2035, it is 68,797 quintals per hectare, and in 2045 it is 77,462 quintals per hectare. In 2045, the projected land area is 27.64 million hectares. Although Indonesia is forecast to experience a rice surplus of 37.80 million tonnes in 2045, the projected rice production and domestic rice consumption level indicate the potential for rice imports of 15 million tonnes.

References

Abdulai, A., & Huffman, W. (2000). Structural adjustment and economic efficiency of rice farmers in northern Ghana. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 48(3), 503–520.

Acee-Eke, B. C. (n.d.). Consumers’ Demand for Org Purchase Intentions: Empirical Survey in N.

Agbachom, E. E., Melvin, A., Amata, U., Ettah, O., & Ubi, G. M. (2019). Strategic Policies in Expanding Frontiers of Food Security among Cassava-based Farmers in Cross River State, Nigeria. Annual Research & Review in Biology, 1–12.

Arifin, B., Achsani, N. A., Martianto, D., Sari, L. K., & Firdaus, A. H. (2018). Modeling the Future of Indonesian Food Consumption. Report Submitted to the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), World Food Programme (WFP), and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Jakarta. Https://Docs. Wfp. Org/Api/Documents/WFP-0000073760/Download.

Biondi, B., Van der Lans, I. A., Mazzocchi, M., Fischer, A. R., Van Trijp, H. C., & Camanzi, L. (2019). Modelling consumer choice through the random regret minimization model: An application in the food domain. Food Quality and Preference, 73, 97–109.

Choi, K., Chen, J. C., Tan, A. S., Soneji, S., & Moran, M. B. (2019). Receipt of tobacco direct mail/email discount coupons and trajectories of cigarette smoking behaviours in a nationally representative longitudinal cohort of US adults. Tobacco Control, 28(3), 282–288.

Fadhliani, Z., Luckstead, J., & Wailes, E. J. (2019). The impacts of multiperil crop insurance on Indonesian rice farmers and production. Agricultural Economics, 50(1), 15–26.

Graham, E. G., Tchale, H., & Ndione, M. (2020). An Optimal Rice Policy for Sierra Leone: Balancing Consumer and Producer Welfare. The World Bank.

Hidayaturrahman, M., & Husamah, H. (2020). Participation in building human resources: Independent strategies for facing a demographic expansion in a remote island. Teacher Education and Professional Development In Industry 4.0: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Teacher Education and Professional Development (InCoTEPD 2019), 13-14 November, 2019, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 141.

Junaidi, J., Yulmardi, Y., & Hardiani, H. (2020). Food crops-based and horticulture-based villages potential as growth center villages in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Journal of Critical Reviews, 7(9), 514–519.

Maraseni, T. N., Deo, R. C., Qu, J., Gentle, P., & Neupane, P. R. (2018). An international comparison of rice consumption behaviours and greenhouse gas emissions from rice production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 2288–2300.

Meuwissen, M. P., Feindt, P. H., Spiegel, A., Termeer, C. J., Mathijs, E., de Mey, Y., Finger, R., Balmann, A., Wauters, E., & Urquhart, J. (2019). A framework to assess the resilience of farming systems. Agricultural Systems, 176, 102656.

Moayedfar, R., Haghshenas, M., Farahmand, S., & Sharirfi, A. (2020). Assessment of Economic-Environmental Consequences of Implementing Policies to Exclude and Reform Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Mena Region up to the Time Horizon by 2100: Experimental Application of RICE Model.

Mora, O., Le Mouël, C., de Lattre-Gasquet, M., Donnars, C., Dumas, P., Réchauchère, O., Brunelle, T., Manceron, S., Marajo-Petitzon, E., & Moreau, C. (2020). Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios. PloS One, 15(7), e0235597.

Movilla-Pateiro, L., Mahou-Lago, X. M., Doval, M. I., & Simal-Gandara, J. (2020). Toward a sustainable metric and indicators for the goal of sustainability in agricultural and food production. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 1–22.

Neilson, J., Dwiartama, A., Fold, N., & Permadi, D. (2020). Resource-based industrial policy in an era of global production networks: Strategic coupling in the Indonesian cocoa sector. World Development, 135, 105045.

Nikmatul, K., Ratya, A., Nuhfil, H., & Wahib, M. A. (2020). The analysis demand for animal source food in Indonesia: Using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. Business: Theory and Practice, 21(1), 427–439.

Pichler, M. (2015). Legal dispossession: State strategies and selectivities in the expansion of Indonesian palm oil and agrofuel production. Development and Change, 46(3), 508–533.

Rusliyadi, M., Jamil, A. B. H. M., Kumalasari, R. T., & Rouf, A. A. (n.d.). Institutional Role and Asisstance Service Analysis on Food Security Policy Case in Indonesia. In Global Challenges and Strategic Disruptors in Asian Businesses and Economies (pp. 43–59). IGI Global.

Sa’diyah, A. A., Anindita, R., Hanani, N., & Muhaimin, A. W. (2019). The strategic food demand for non poor rural households in Indonesia. EurAsian Journal of BioSciences, 13(2), 2197–2202.

Santilano, A., Godio, A., & Manzella, A. (2018). Particle swarm optimization for simultaneous analysis of magnetotelluric and time-domain electromagnetic data. Geophysics, 83(3), E151–E159.

Sarwar, M. T., Fountas, G., & Anastasopoulos, P. C. (2017). Simultaneous estimation of discrete outcome and continuous dependent variable equations: A bivariate random effects modeling approach with unrestricted instruments. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, 16, 23–34.

Setiadi, R., Artiningsih, A., Sophianigrum, M., & Satriani, T. (2020). The dimension of rural-urban linkage of food security assessment: An Indonesian case study. Asian Geographer, 1–19.

Sulaiman, A. A., Sulaeman, Y., Mustikasari, N., Nursyamsi, D., & Syakir, A. M. (2019). Increasing sugar production in Indonesia through land suitability analysis and sugar mill restructuring. Land, 8(4), 61.

Utami, N. W. F., Wirawan, I. G. P., Firn, J., Kepakisan, A. N. K., Kusdyana, I. P. G. A., Nicol, S., & Carwardine, J. (2020). Prioritizing management strategies to achieve multiple outcomes in a globally significant Indonesian protected area. Conservation Science and Practice, e157.

Wicke, B., Sikkema, R., Dornburg, V., & Faaij, A. (2011). Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Land Use Policy, 28(1), 193–206.

Downloads

Published

2021-04-30

How to Cite

Zainul, A., Hanani, N., Kustiono, D., Syafrial, S., & Asmara, R. (2021). FORECASTING THE BASIC CONDITIONS OF INDONESIA’S RICE ECONOMY 2019-2045. Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal, 21(2), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2021.021.2.4

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 2 (2021): APRIL

Section

Articles

License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

    1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
    2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
    3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 > >>